Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Chart, Stock Market Us Presidential Cycle The Market Oracle

Some research has suggested that the last two years of the four year presidential cycle are normally positive for the market.

Kentucky election ballot status. Is it all coincidental. This weeks chart shows our presidential cycle pattern which is an average of the sp 500s behavior over the 4 years of each presidential term. These charts show how the several key market indexes performed during each presidents four year term of office going back to 1900.

Stock market performance thus far in 2019 has coincided with the presidential election cycle pattern. The first 2 years of a presidential term have been associated with below average returns while the last 2 years have been well above average. History suggests that us stock market returns are correlated with the presidential election cycle.

Only presidents who were elected as opposed to vps who stepped in are shown. As the chart below illustrates each year of a four year presidential term has its own unique path. Stock market performance before presidential elections.

Cumulative returns by year if the presidential cycle since 1947. October 30 2020 stock market indicators. Stock market performance by president from election date this interactive chart shows the running percentage gain in the dow jones industrial average by presidential term.

As the following chart shows the past five presidential elections didnt evoke extreme market reactions with barack obamas first triumph in 2008 a notable exception. Its unlikely the market is capable of moving with 100 correlation to a four year cycle as the economy doesnt inherently ebb and flow in the same ways during a given timeframe. It should be of no surprise that the markets performed better.

Strategas research partners stock market performance during an election year. In the 23 four year presidential election cycles beginning in 1928 through this year the market failed to produce a gain only five times in the third year of the cycle 19311939 1947 2011 and 2015 which on average outperformed the other. This election year truly isnt all that odd.

The pattern is pronounced and there are many nuances to explore. Stocks politics 1 first second terms 2 presidential cycles 3 4 sp 500 index pe 5 misc. When an election year does see a down stock market as in 2000 or 2008 it is bad for the party in power.