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How bad did the pollsters blunder.

Election online status. Its a burning question as sunday morning brought a slew of fresh and near final polls before election day. Presidential election even in this years race. Americans found that out on election night in 2016 when polls predicting victories for hillary clinton in the key swing states of michigan pennsylvania and wisconsin all turned out to be wrong.

Joseph campbell american university school of communicationthe question looms in nearly every us. Engineer in san francisco. Heres what they said right before election day according to realclearpolitics rcp which keeps a running average of all polls from battleground states.

President donald trump immediately took notice. The pollsters got it completely historically wrong he wrote wednesday morning on twitter. The most accurate poll in the nation in 2016 was the rptrafalgar poll.

Polls and pundits were wrong across the board prior to the 2016 presidential election. Could the polls be wrong. Minnesota early voting is a toss up but expect trump win by at least 85000 votes.

1 for an detailed analysis of all the ways polling can go wrong see this cambridge paper. But could the polls be wrong. Any poll that relies strictly on live polls is going to be wrong there are so many people who just do not want to be judged or called a horrible name because of the opinion.

Trump became the first republican presidential nominee to win many of those states. Indeed the anti trump spin was so universal with pollsters and journalists in the last presidential election. The washington post reported biden holding a slight lead over president trump in pennsylvania and the two candidates in a virtual dead heat in florida two utterly critical swing states.

Are presidential polls bullshit. Watch ramsey and hennepin counties. Sentiment analysis of social media posts shows biden ahead of trump by just 3 much closer than most polls show.

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