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The pattern is pronounced and there are many nuances to explore.

American elections wicked game podcast. Stock market performance thus far in 2019 has coincided with the presidential election cycle pattern. The impact on global markets. 1 of the second year of a presidential term and sell on dec.

The presidential election cycle theory developed by stock traders almanac founder yale hirsch contends that us. As of market close on august 17 th 2020 the sp 500 was up 468 year to date total return and bloomberg barclays us. 31 of year four.

Read the transcript covid us. In the 23 four year presidential election cycles beginning in 1928 through this year the market failed to produce a gain only five times in the third year of the cycle 19311939 1947 2011 and 2015 which on average outperformed the other. Cumulative returns by year if the presidential cycle since 1947.

It was furthered by pepperdine professor marshall nickles in a paper called presidential elections and stock market cycles which presented data showing that a profitable strategy would be to invest on oct. Stock markets are weakest in the year following the election of a new president.

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