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Election day lyrics blaze. In the 23 four year presidential election cycles beginning in 1928 through this year the market failed to produce a gain only five times in the third year of the cycle 19311939 1947 2011 and 2015 which on average outperformed the other. Stock market performance thus far in 2019 has coincided with the presidential election cycle pattern. Hirschs aphorisms also included the belief that the four year presidential election cycle was a key indicator of stock market performance.
But there are some clear exceptions. Using data going back several decades the wall street. Stock market performance during an election year it should be of no surprise that the markets performed better during a year when an incumbent president is elected compared to a new administration.
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