Election Years And Stock Market, How Should Investors Think About The Upcoming Election S Impact On The Stock Market
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As of market close on august 17 th 2020 the sp 500 was up 468 year to date total return and bloomberg barclays us.
Election map of 2016. Over the past 60 plus years the third year of the presidency saw an average stock market gain of more than 16. The sp 500 has made gains in 78 of election years since world war ii. If you put 10000 in the market around election day 10 years later it will have gained value said stephanie link chief investment strategist and portfolio manager at hightower a wealth.
It is a normal trend for the stock market to rise during an election year. The good news for investors is that historically the market has performed well in election years with the sp 500 ending up in positive territory 82 of the time. Market performance in election years.
All election years 1125 average return. When democrats control the congress and the presidency the market has risen an average of 296 a year but 521 with a democratic president and a republican congress. Do markets rise during an election year.
But the limited number of election cycles makes it difficult to draw reliable. I recently updated this study and took the history all the way back to the very first election in 1789 yes there is stock market history that far back if you splice different series together. The midterm election year.
The first year of a presidency is characterized by relatively weak performance in the stock market. How could the election possibly affect their portfolio and how can they hedge against tail risks. Data below is from dimensionals matrix book 2019.
This is clearly not a normal. Historical returns of stocks and bonds during election years. President trump is now seeking a second term and the sp has gained an average of 66.
The second year also sees historically below average performance. Election year stock market returns here are the market results for the sp 500 for every election year since 1928. According to a 2019 dimensional funds report the market has been positive in 19 of the last 23 election years spanning 1928 2016.
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